Vegetation change,goats, and religion: a 2000-year history of land use in southern Morocco     

Helen V. McGregor  Lydie Dupont  Jan-Berend W. Stuut  Holger Kuhlmann 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(15-16):1434-1448

Understanding past human–climate–environment interactions is essential for assessing the vulnerability of landscapes and ecosystems to future climate change. This is particularly important in southern Morocco where the current vegetation is impacted by pastoralism, and the region is highly sensitive to climate variability. Here, we present a 2000-year record of vegetation, sedimentation rate, XRF chemical element intensities, and particle size from two decadal-resolved, marine sediment cores, raised from offshore Cape Ghir, southern Morocco. The results show that between 650 and 850 AD the sedimentation rate increased dramatically from 100 cm/1000 years to 300 cm/1000 years, and the Fe/Ca and pollen flux doubled, together indicating higher inputs of terrestrial sediment. Particle size measurements and end-member modelling suggest increased fluvial transport of the sediment. Beginning at 650 AD pollen levels from Cichorioideae species show a sharp rise from 10% to 20%. Pollen from Atemisia and Plantago, also increase from this time. Deciduous oak pollen percentages show a decline, whereas those of evergreen oak barely change. The abrupt increase in terrestrial/fluvial input from 650 to 850 AD occurs, within the age uncertainty, of the arrival of Islam (Islamisation) in Morocco at around 700 AD. Historical evidence suggests Islamisation led to population increase and development of southern Morocco, including expanded pastoralism, deforestation and agriculture. Livestock pressure may have changed the vegetation structure, accounting for the increase in pollen from Cichorioideae, Plantago, and Artemisia, which include many weedy species. Goats in particular may have played a dominant role as agents of erosion, and intense browsing may have led to the decline in deciduous oak; evergreen oak is more likely to survive as it re-sprouts more vigorously after browsing. From 850 AD to present sedimentation rates, Fe/Ca ratios and fluvial discharge remain stable, whereas pollen results suggest continued degradation. Pollen results from the past 150 years suggest expanded cultivation of olives and the native argan tree, and the introduction of Australian eucalyptus trees. The rapidly increasing population in southern Morocco is causing continued pressure to expand pastoralism and agriculture. The history of land degradation presented here suggests that the vegetation in southern Morocco may have been degraded for a longer period than previously thought and may be particularly sensitive to further land use changes. These results should be included in land management strategies for southern Morocco.  相似文献   

Water source characterization through spatiotemporal patterns of major,minor and trace element stream concentrations in a complex,mesoscale German catchment     

Holger L. Fröhlich  Lutz Breuer  Hans‐Georg Frede  Johan A. Huisman  Kellie B. Vaché 《水文研究》2008,22(12):2028-2043

The link between spatiotemporal patterns of stream water chemistry and catchment characteristics for the mesoscale Dill catchment (692 km²) in Germany is explored to assess the catchment scale controls on water quality and to characterize water sources. In order to record the spatiotemporal pattern, ‘snapshot sampling’ was applied during low, mean and high flow, including 73 nested sites throughout the catchment. Water samples were analysed for the elements Li, B, Na, Mg, Al, K, Ca, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Mo, Ba, Pb and U using inductively‐coupled‐plasma mass spectrometry, and for electric conductivity and pH. Principle component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to find typical element associations and to group water samples according to their hydrochemical fingerprints. This revealed regional hydrochemical patterns of water quality which were subsequently related to catchment attributes to draw conclusions about the controls on stream chemistry. It was found that various lithologic signals and anthropogenic point source inputs controlled the base flow hydrochemistry. During increased flows, stream waters were diluted causing additional hydrochemical variability in response to heterogeneous precipitation inputs and differences in aquifer storage capacities. The hydrochemical patterns further displayed in‐stream mixing of waters. This implied, that stream waters could be apportioned to the identified water sources throughout the catchment. The basin‐wide hydrochemical variability has the potential to outrange the tracer signatures typically inferred in studies at the hillslope scale and is able to strongly influence the complexity of the catchment output. Both have to be considered for further catchment scale tracer and modelling work. Despite the likelihood of non‐conservative behaviour, the minor and trace elements enhanced the rather qualitative discrimination of the various groundwater types, as the major cations were strongly masked by point source inputs. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modification of fluid inclusions in quartz by deviatoric stress I: experimentally induced changes in inclusion shapes and microstructures   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Alexandre Tarantola  Larryn W. Diamond  Holger Stünitz 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,160(6):825-843

Fluid inclusions in quartz are known to modify their shapes and microstructures (textures) during weak plastic deformation. However, such changes have not been experimentally demonstrated and criteria are not available to relate them to paleostress conditions. To address these issues, quartz crystals containing natural CO₂–H₂O–NaCl fluid inclusions have been experimentally subjected to compressive deviatoric stresses of 90–250 MPa at 700°C and ~600 MPa confining pressure. Strains of up to 1% cause the inclusions to develop irregular shapes and to generate microcracks in crystallographic planes oriented subperpendicular to the major compression axis, σ ₁. The uniform alignment of the microcracks imparts a planar fabric to the samples. The microcracks heal and form swarms of tiny satellite inclusions. These new inclusions lose H₂O by diffusion, thereby triggering plastic deformation of the surrounding quartz via H₂O-weakening. Consequently, the quartz samples deform plastically only in domains originally rich in inclusions. This study shows that fluid inclusions deformed by deviatoric stresses may indeed record information on paleostress orientations and that they play a key role in facilitating crystal-plastic deformation of quartz.  相似文献   

Ecological niches of Arctic deep-sea copepods: Vertical partitioning,dietary preferences and different trophic levels minimize inter-specific competition     

Silke Laakmann  Marc Kochzius  Holger Auel 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(5):741-756

The biodiversity of pelagic deep-sea ecosystems has received growing scientific interest in the last decade, especially in the framework of international marine biodiversity initiatives, such as Census of Marine Life (CoML). While a growing number of deep-sea zooplankton species has been identified and genetically characterized, little information is available on the mechanisms minimizing inter-specific competition and thus allowing closely related species to co-occur in the deep-sea pelagic realm. Focussing on the two dominant calanoid copepod families Euchaetidae and Aetideidae in Fram Strait, Arctic Ocean, the present study strives to characterize ecological niches of co-occurring species, with regard to vertical distribution, dietary composition as derived from lipid biomarkers, and trophic level on the basis of stable isotope signatures. Closely related species were usually restricted to different depth layers, resulting in a multi-layered vertical distribution pattern. Thus, vertical partitioning was an important mechanism to avoid inter-specific competition. Species occurring in the same depth strata usually belonged to different genera. They differed in fatty acid composition and trophic level, indicating different food preferences. Herbivorous Calanus represent major prey items for many omnivorous and carnivorous species throughout the water column. The seasonal and ontogenetic vertical migration of Calanus acts as a short-cut in food supply for pelagic deep-sea ecosystems in the Arctic.  相似文献   

Stress evaluation in offshore regions of Norway     

Holger Spann  Martin Brudy  Karl Fuchs 《地学学报》1991,3(2):148-152

A review has been undertaken of all available information on crustal stresses in Norwegian continental shelf and North Sea. The data have principally come from the results of borehole breakouts, supplemented by focal mechanisms. A simple model of a soft linear inclusion was developed to explain the rapid changes in stress orientation in the Central Graben area. This example indicates that the stress field is affected locally by the geological or structural environment.  相似文献   

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   

A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Rosie Eade  Holger Pohlmann 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3325-3338

There are two main approaches for dealing with model biases in forecasts made with initialized climate models. In full-field initialization, model biases are removed during the assimilation process by constraining the model to be close to observations. Forecasts drift back towards the model’s preferred state, thereby re-establishing biases which are then removed with an a posterior lead-time dependent correction diagnosed from a set of historical tests (hindcasts). In anomaly initialization, the model is constrained by observed anomalies and deviates from its preferred climatology only by the observed variability. In theory, the forecasts do not drift, and biases may be removed based on the difference between observations and independent model simulations of a given period. Both approaches are currently in use, but their relative merits are unclear. Here we compare the skill of each approach in comprehensive decadal hindcasts starting each year from 1960 to 2009, made using the Met Office decadal prediction system. Both approaches are more skilful than climatology in most regions for temperature and some regions for precipitation. On seasonal timescales, full-field initialized hindcasts of regional temperature and precipitation are significantly more skilful on average than anomaly initialized hindcasts. Teleconnections associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation are stronger with the full-field approach, providing a physical basis for the improved precipitation skill. Differences in skill on multi-year timescales are generally not significant. However, anomaly initialization provides a better estimate of forecast skill from a limited hindcast set.  相似文献   

NMR Measurements in Carbonate Rocks: Problems and an Approach to a Solution   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hildegard?WestphalEmail author  Iris?Surholt  Christian?Kiesl  Holger F. ?Thern  Thomas?Kruspe 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(3):549-570

Carbonate rocks are well known for their complex petrophysical behavior where, in contrast to siliciclastic rocks, different parameters, including porosity and permeability, usually are not directly related. This behavior is the result of thorough reorganization of porosity during diagenesis, and it turns prediction of reservoir quality of carbonate rocks into a challenge. The study presented here deals with the problem of utilizing NMR techniques in prediction of petrophysical properties in carbonates.We employ a visual porosity classification as a priori knowledge for better interpreting NMR data for prediction purposes. This allows for choice of suitable T₂ cutoff values to differentiate movable from bound fluids adapted for the specific carbonate rock, thus resulting in better interpretation of NMR data. The approach of using a genetic pore type classification for adapting the conventional method for T₂ cutoff determination, which originally was developed for siliciclastic rocks, is promising. Similarly, for permeability determination on the basis of NMR measurements, the classification of carbonate rocks based on porosity types also shows potential. The approach implemented here has the promise to provide a basis of standardized interpretation of NMR data from carbonate rocks.Acknowledgment We are grateful to Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, for permission to publish the results of this work. This study was part of I.S.s Masters Thesis at Hannover University that was carried out in collaboration with Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, Germany. We appreciate comments of an anonymous referee and PAGEOPH editor Brian J. Mitchell.  相似文献   

Environmental changes in northern New Zealand since the Middle Holocene inferred from stable isotope records (δ15N, δ13C) of Lake Pupuke     

Alexander M. Heyng  Christoph Mayr  Andreas Lücke  Bernd Striewski  Stefan Wasteg?rd  Holger Wissel 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,48(2):351-366

Maar lakes in the Auckland Volcanic Field are important high-resolution archives of Holocene environmental change in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were applied on bulk organic matter and the green alga Botryococcus from a sediment core from Lake Pupuke (Auckland, North Island, New Zealand) spanning the period since 7,165?cal.?year BP. The origin of organic matter was established using total-organic?Ccarbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN) as well as organic carbon (??¹³C_OM) and nitrogen (??¹⁵N) isotope composition of potential modern sources. This approach demonstrated that the contribution of allochthonous organic matter to the lake sediment was negligible for most of the record. The sedimentary TOC/TN ratios that are higher than Redfield ratio (i.e. >7) are attributed to N-limiting conditions throughout the record. Variations of nitrogen and carbon isotopes during the last 7,165?years are interpreted as changes in the dominant processes in the lake. While epilimnetic primary productivity controlled isotope composition before 6,600?cal.?year BP, microbial processes, especially denitrification and methane oxidation, caused overall shifts of the ??¹⁵N and ??¹³C values since the Mid-Holocene. Comparisons with climate reconstructions from the Northern Island suggest that changes in the wind-induced lake overturn and a shift to more pronounced seasonality were the most likely causes for lake-internal changes since 6,600?cal.?year BP.  相似文献   

Meteorologically consistent bias correction of climate time series for agricultural models     

Holger Hoffmann  Thomas Rath 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(1-2):129-141

Conventional bias correction of simulated climate time series for impact models is done separately for climate variables and hence leads to inconsistencies between them. However, agricultural models mostly use several variables, and meteorological consistency is essential. The present work points out meteorological inconsistency due to quantile mapping and describes a new method of consistent bias correction by an optimization approach. Time series of hourly precipitation and global radiation from the regional model REMO5.7 (Run UBA C20/A1B_1) were corrected with site observations from the German Meteorological Service. The results urge to check conventionally corrected series for consistency before using them for multidimensional models. Here, quantile mapping resulted in underestimation of diffuse radiation at hours with precipitation. This deficit was minimized by the developed procedure.  相似文献